China’s Mega-Dam on Brahmaputra Raises Concerns in Bangladesh and India

Dhaka, July 23, 2025 – China has initiated construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, with an estimated cost of $170 billion. While the project’s energy output is less than the existing Three Gorges Dam, its political, environmental, and strategic implications are profound, sparking concerns in downstream nations, India and Bangladesh.

The groundbreaking ceremony, led by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, has boosted shares in China’s construction and engineering sectors. The project, located in a region where the river drops 2,000 meters over a 50-kilometer stretch, includes plans for five cascade hydropower stations, with power generation expected to begin by early 2030. However, China’s lack of transparency regarding critical project details beyond cost and methodology has heightened anxieties in neighboring countries.

The Brahmaputra, originating in the Tibetan Plateau, flows through India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam before entering Bangladesh as the Jamuna, sustaining millions of people through agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has warned that the dam could reduce the river’s flow by up to 80%, potentially flooding low-lying areas like Assam and disrupting sediment flow critical for agriculture. Professor Michael Steckler from Columbia University views the project as a barrier to the natural flow of water and sediment, while Sayanangshu Modak from the University of Arizona highlights India’s concerns, fueled by historical border conflicts and China’s lack of transparency. Modak questions whether China could strategically withhold water, escalating geopolitical tensions. **China’s Response** China’s Foreign Ministry asserts that the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is a sovereign matter, claiming it will aid flood control and provide clean energy. Beijing insists it has communicated with downstream nations on hydropower, flood control, and disaster mitigation, maintaining that the project will not harm lower riparian states. **India’s Response and Water Source Analysis** India’s Foreign and Water Resources Ministries have not issued formal statements, but Modak notes that the Brahmaputra’s primary water source is monsoon rainfall from the southern Himalayas, not China. The proposed dam is a “run-of-the-river” project, designed to generate power without obstructing water flow. India is also planning two hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra, including an 11.5 MW project that could be its largest, aimed at strengthening its position and countering China’s influence. **Geopolitical Competition and Regional Security** Modak suggests India aims to solidify its stance by demonstrating active use of the river’s water, potentially limiting China’s unilateral actions. The project underscores global water disputes, with parallels to Pakistan’s accusations against India over the Indus Waters Treaty and tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile. **Safety Risks** The dam is being built in an earthquake-prone region, susceptible to landslides, glacial lake outburst floods, and extreme weather. The high altitude and challenging conditions pose significant engineering hurdles. While the project promises development and energy for China, it raises concerns, strategic complexities, and security risks for neighboring countries. The future of regional relations will depend on how the project is implemented and the level of transparency China maintains.