Six members of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, angered by the failure to guarantee future exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious students from mandatory military service, submitted resignation letters from parliamentary committees and government ministries on Monday night. The UTJ lawmakers have given Netanyahu 48 hours to resolve the crisis, with their resignations set to take effect thereafter. This issue has strained the coalition for months.
Shas, another ultra-Orthodox party and a close ally of UTJ, may also exit, which could strip the government of its parliamentary majority. Currently, Netanyahu’s coalition holds a narrow 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Should Shas follow suit, the government’s stability would be further jeopardized.
The timing of the crisis offers Netanyahu a temporary reprieve, as the Knesset is set to begin its summer recess by the end of July, giving him a three-month window to address the issue before a potential loss of majority. However, the ongoing ceasefire talks in Qatar, aimed at securing a 60-day truce in Gaza, add further complexity. These negotiations, involving Israel and Hamas, seek to free half of the remaining Israeli hostages and deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, potentially paving the way for discussions on a permanent end to the conflict.
Netanyahu also faces pressure from far-right coalition partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who advocate continuing the war in Gaza. Despite their opposition, Topaz Luk, a close ally of Netanyahu, told Army Radio on Tuesday that the prime minister would likely secure approval for a ceasefire deal when the right terms are presented.
Background on the Conscription Issue
The 21-month war in Gaza, sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack that killed approximately 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage, has intensified public frustration in Israel. The conflict has claimed over 58,000 Palestinian lives, displaced nearly all of Gaza’s population, and created a severe humanitarian crisis, with the region on the brink of famine.
The issue of military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) students has long been contentious. Many Israelis view the exemptions as unfair, arguing they place an undue burden on those who serve. Ultra-Orthodox leaders, however, maintain that full-time study of holy scriptures is sacred and fear that conscription would lead their youth away from religious life.
Last year, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled to end the exemptions, deeming them discriminatory. The Knesset has since struggled to draft a new conscription law that satisfies UTJ’s demands. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have begun issuing draft notices to approximately 54,000 ultra-Orthodox students, with plans to send out more by summer’s end, escalating tensions.
Political Implications
The coalition’s fragility is compounded by broader challenges. Netanyahu’s government, formed in December 2022, is one of Israel’s most right-wing, relying on ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties. The conscription dispute has deepened divisions, with public resentment growing amid the Gaza war’s high toll, including around 450 Israeli soldiers killed.
While UTJ’s exit alone would not topple the government, a joint departure with Shas could force early elections, which polls suggest Netanyahu’s Likud party would lose. Opposition leaders, including Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, have capitalized on the crisis, with Lapid’s Yesh Atid party introducing a bill to dissolve the Knesset. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s potential political comeback further threatens Netanyahu’s position.
Netanyahu, facing corruption charges since 2020, has a personal stake in maintaining power to influence his legal proceedings. Analysts note his history of navigating coalition crises, but the current divide—pitting ultra-Orthodox demands against widespread public opposition to exemptions—presents a formidable challenge.
As the Knesset nears its recess, Netanyahu’s ability to broker a compromise will be critical to his government’s survival. The outcome of the conscription dispute and ceasefire talks will likely shape Israel’s political landscape in the coming months.
